P Chidambaram, Raghuram Rajan order banks to cut interest rates on loans

FM P Chidambaram and RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan have laid the foundation for a grand Diwali dhamaka that is likely to lead to banks cutting interest rates on loans for the festive season. Government today decided to enhance capital infusion into the PSU banks over and above what was provided in the Budget to enable them to extend more credit to auto and consumer durables sectors to stimulate demand and combat slowdown.

At a meeting between Finance Minister P Chidambaram, RBI GovernorRaghuram Rajan and Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram a decision was taken to increase the quantum of capital infusion into PSU banks.

Related: RBI bans zero per cent interest rate scheme for buying goods

"This amount (Rs 14,000 crore provided for capital infusion in Budget) will be enhanced sufficiently. The additional amount of capital will be provided to banks to enable them to lend to borrowers in selected sectors such as two-wheeler, consumer durables, etc at lower interest rates in order to stimulate demand," a finance ministry statement said.

It further said the additional fund infusion would help in combating slowdown and boost output.

Related: The story behind zero per cent interest EMI schemes

"While this will bring relief to consumers, especially the middle class, it is also expected to give a boost to capacity addition, employment and production," it added.

As per the latest industrial output data, the output of the consumer durables sector declined by 9.3 per cent in July, from a growth of 0.8 per cent in the same month last year. The segment saw a 12 per cent decline in output in April-July compared with growth of 6.1 per cent.

Consumer durables, a reflection of demand for manufactured products, include TV, fridge, washing machine.

The two-wheeler sales recorded a flat growth of 0.72 per cent in April-August period current fiscal, as against a growth of 6.8 per cent in the corresponding period last year.

The meeting, which lasted for over an hour, discussed credit growth in different sectors.

The quantum of additional capital infusion, however, was not disclosed by the government.

The Economic Express

Lull before the storm: Rupee seen at 69.50 against US dollar

The rupee has seen a smart recovery of near 10 per cent after Raghuram Rajan took over as the Reserve Bank chief. The Indian Rupee has stabilised for now after an extremely volatile August which saw the Indian currency test new all-time lows and lose over 20 per cent against major global currencies.

This was categorically due to the growth initiatives the market was expecting from Raghuram, something on which the new man in largely disappointed.

Barring this, as far as the Indian currency is concerned, uncertainty looms over what decision the US Federal Reserve takes on its much vaunted quantitative easing programme in October or later in the year.

"Previously, we were forecasting a value of 62 for the rupee against the dollar by year-end, but now we have raised that to 69.50. We think that the policy moves by the RBI are credible for both inflation and the currency, but that is at the cost of growth. Growth will be slower than expected," Clive McDonnell, Head Equity Strategy, Standard Chartered, told ET Now.

The pressure on the rupee is likely to build up ahead of the Fed meet in October, when a decision on quantitative easing ( QE) is expected.

"We are going to see increased pressure on emerging market currencies, particularly Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee. That is likely to intensify ahead of FOMC meeting," said Eric Fishwick, CLSA.

But then there is more to add pressure on the Indian currency. "I would also emphasise that there is more ... I would expect pressure on the Indian rupee and the Indonesian rupiah as a result of stronger European growth," added Eric Fishwick.

What about stock markets?

"Regardless of whether there is tapering or not, what has happened globally is that the liquidity, inter-bank liquidity is drying up pretty quickly and that is the reason why the US bond yields are volatile now and therefore bank liquidity is drying up. Equity markets cannot be very buoyant under those conditions and it is happening in India as well," says market analyst Satish Ramanathan.

"I do not think we are in for a hard rally from here," he adds.

So, the euphoria about cheap valuations, etc, has died out? 

"My interaction with investors at our conference reveals that the interest exists, but it is not that there is a kind of euphoria about the country, about the valuations, etc," says Mahesh Nandurkar, Executive Research, CLSA.

And why is so? "The reason is that most of the investors are a little worried about the direction of the rupee. While the currency has appreciated, it has been quite volatile and the markets have also been volatile. So, international investors are essentially looking for more stability in both the rupee and the market. It is the volatility which is really creating some issues for foreign investors about investing in India at this point in time," Mahesh Nandurkar adds.

The S&P BSE Sensex on Thursday was witnessing a rangebound session with positive bias as traders squared off open positions on the last day of September series. The trade is likely to remain choppy as the session progresses, say dealers.

Economic Times