The SWOT Analysis of Congress for the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections

Is Rahul Gandhi busy with interior decoration while his house is on fire? Can Sonia Gandhi’s ‘pro-poor’ image counter Narendra Modi’s ‘pro-development’ image? In the first of a two-part series that focuses on India’s two biggest political parties, Sheela Bhatt analyses the Congress’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

Rahul Gandhi, the Congress vice president, is focused reorganising the messy party structure. He wants to establish a coordination system between party leaders and workers. He wants permanent formulas and standard operating procedures in party activities so that individuals cannot manipulate decisions for personal gains or vested/political interest.

The commercialisation of powerful political party positions and political blackmailing of various kinds has weakened the Congress from the inside in the last few years. Rahul is up against vulgar lust of power among district, state and Delhi-based old foxes.

His critics say Rahul lacks priority and doesn’t recognise the urgency of the times. When the house is on fire, his detractors say, you can't focus on the interior decoration. 

Meanwhile, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is breathing down the neck of the Gandhi family and the Congress. Paradoxically, the Modi factor is also helping the Congress to shift focus from the scams and failures of governance -- to portraying the coming big fight as a battle of secularism versus communalism.

As the country inches towards elections, here's a SWOT analysis of India’s ruling party.   

STRENGTHS:

1. The Congress is in power, and thus has control over leverages of power.

2. The party’s brand recognition amongst Dalits, minorities, and the poor -- the biggest block of active voters in India.

3. The internal bickering in the party don’t make headlines as much as the BJP’s internal feuds. For instance, Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh didn't put enough pressure on bureaucrats to allow Finance Minister P Chidambaram to decrease interest rates. Digvijay Singh’s politics is completely rubbished by Janardan Dwivedi. But such things don't hit the headlines as much as, say, Modi versus Sushma Swaraj.  

4. Unmatched resources and money power. According to analyst Minhaz Merchant, the Congress's audited balance sheet for 2009-10 shows expenditure of Rs 525.97 crore.

5. Fear of Modi among minorities and intense dislike for him among secular and left-leaning Indians.

6. Better allied strength. The Congress will have more allies if it is neck and neck with the BJP in winning seats. Congress can halt Modi’s march by making clever alliances in Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Bihar. But for that Rahul Gandhi and senior Congress party men will have to shelve ego and arrogance.

7. If Rahul can up the game -- read be more masculine, politically speaking -- a certain section of voters may find him less risky than Modi, who comes with the baggage of not just the 2002 riots but an image of a heavy-handed, ‘my way or the highway’ leader.

8. Rahul has a better pro-poor image than Modi. It is difficult to find even a photograph of the Gujarat chief minister, seen as a development messiah by many, with the poorest Indians, who number more than 30 crores.

9. The Muslim-Dalit factor. While Muslims will make or break the BJP’s fortune in some 60 constituencies, in about 80 constituencies Dalits and tribals are significant enough to make India’s leaders stick to the middle path between market-driven and socialist economics.

10. The Sonia factor. The Congress’s only hope for the 2014 election is that Sonia Gandhi’s message that she has pushed ‘pro-poor’ legislation --  like food security bill, direct cash transfer scheme, etc -- without bothering about the economy’s bottom lines, will go down well with India’s poor voters. 

WEAKNESSES:

1. Lack of leadership, vision. Sonia, Rahul and Prime Minister Singh are figuratively invisible to everyone including the common man. The India Story soured before fruition, and the Congress failed to capitalise on the global spotlight on the country. The party leaders parrot lines about inclusive growth but scams and bad governance have washed away the moral high ground.

2. The nose-diving economy. Harrowing price-rise -- petrol, onion and dollar prices are almost the same, and everyone from the upper middle class down are thinking five times before buying anything -- is the Congress’s biggest weakness today. The party will be held directly responsible for loss of confidence in the market as well. The less said about the rupee, the better. Here is a sure-shot reason to lose the election. 

3. Failure in governance. Both the United Progressive Alliance 1 and UPA II didn't correct the basic flaws of the Indian governance system, and it will be a major factor if the Congress is defeated. Aadhar and cash transfer schemes are examples of half-hearted, incomplete measures whose final shape will be known or can be assessed only in 2014 later. Advantage Modi.

4. Late shifting of power centre. The transition from Sonia to Rahul should have been carried out at least a year earlier. It’s dangerous to push such a vital exercise so close to an election. Political parties are all about political leadership. The internal transition of power should have been a peace-time process, not war-time activity.  

5. Lack of empathy with the people. From Manish Tiwari to Renuka Chowdhary, none of the Congress’s spokespersons speak the people’s language. Tiwari’s recent assertion that journalists should need some kind of license speaks volumes about the Congress’s understanding of journalism and journalists. There is a pathetic paucity of phrases and idioms to reach out to the people though the media. Digvijay Singh is the Congress’s one-man army in the media war, but he is too predictable. The minorities are divided on his sincerity, despite his constant lashing out at the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. “Digvijay’s remarks in so-called defence of minorities is actually provoking Hindu communalism; we oppose it,” says Shahid Siddiqui, editor of Nai Dunia.

6. Corruption. The charge sticks. It’s true that many BJP leaders are equally corrupt, but they are not in power so they are not under as much scrutiny as the Congress is. The scams of the last nine years, including 2G, coalgate and Robert Vadra land deals, will haunt Congress for a long time to come.  

7. Vadra: Sonia’s Achilles’ heel.  The Robert Vadra issue is a major blow to the Congress president's credibility.

8. Policy paralysis. Telangana, US-India relationship, India-Pakistan ties, foreign investment, food security, appointments and transfers of top bureaucrats -- all major policy decisions are in bits and pieces. It is evidence that the Congress is as much a divided house as the BJP, though the BJP’s bickering is better known to the public. Unlike in the BJP, the dissenting Congress leaders have inherent limitations: Only the Gandhis matter in the final decision-making process. The BJP’s dissenters have much more power. 

9. Floating voters. The most important electoral block for the last few elections, the floating voter, is unlikely to drift towards the Congress. These voters don’t have steadfast loyalty to any party. BJP leader Arun Jaitley calls them Indians “with a sense of fairness” who want to teach the political parties a lesson through the ballot box.

10. Big guns turning out damp squibs. Leaders like the economist prime minister, the ‘honest’ Defence Minister A K Antony have been exposed as ineffective. They could have emerged as heroes, but the party has failed to project them and they have also failed to live up to expectations. 

OPPORTUNITIES:

1. Secularism. There is a huge constituency that will follow the Congress if it sticks by secular principles. More than six decades after the Jana Sangh’s birth, there are hundreds of thousands of Muslim voter-dominated booths where the BJP doesn’t even do any election propaganda. The Congress needs to make its plank of secularism more voter-friendly by getting people who can talk about it in the common man’s language, without resorting to highfalutin.

2. Pakistan. The Congress is failing in finding the language and the intention to deal with Islamabad. The Congress is unable to see the opportunity in the people’s sensitivity to Pakistan policy. If it can find a way to deal with Pakistan that can resonate with the common man’s angst, it will have scored a major victory.

3. Narendra Modi. The Gujarat chief minister’s great gamble for power in 2014 has given the Congress a genuine headache and a genuine opportunity. The Congress can grab the opportunity or go down with overkill. As of now, it seems the Modi-bashing on overdrive has resulted in giving Modi the media space he desperately wants. 

4. Priyanka Gandhi. She remains an unexplored opportunity for the Congress. Even when Rahul Gandhi took his baby steps in politics years ago, the Congress rank and file wanted Priyanka instead.

5. Poll tickets. The district-level Congress workers are screaming for rooftops that there should be no corruption in selection of candidates. The likes of Kamal Nath who have bungled in ticket distribution should be kept away. If the party can clean up its ticket-giving act, it will help the Congress. Although it's difficult to woo them back given the depth of the corruption, the Congress cannot ignore the floating voters, who Modi is targeting aggressively.

6. Outreach to tribals, Dalits, minorities. Money power can’t replace tears, sweat and blood. Before the Congress’s stunning defeat of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in 2004, Sonia Gandhi crisscrossed the tribal heartlands, and her charisma worked. 

THREATS:

1. Manipulation. Over-use of the Central Bureau of Investigation or any kind of political dirty tricks will rebound. The Congress should understand that this is a new India and a new Indian media. Manipulation of institutions doesn't remain a secret these days.

2. The danger of the middle ground. The Congress party can sink in the ground between Muslim appeasement and soft Hindutva.

3. ChiPak factor.China and Pakistan’s moves -- anyone notice how Chinese are intruding into Arunachal while Pakistanis are violating ceasefire in tandem? -- can take their toll.

4. United BJP. The RSS is now firmly behind Modi and the BJP will fall in line. A united BJP can do much more damage to the Congress.

5. The anti-Congress sentiment. Whether it's a wave or an under-current in favour of Modi is open to interpretation, but it is undeniable that many people have started believing that 2014 is not just about Modi but also about price rise, corruption and lack of leadership and governance. The anti-Congress vote will be more powerful than the pro-BJP vote.

6. Modi’s masala. The Gujarat chief minister’s moves are making Rahul Gandhi's big plans for 2014 election look bland. Modi is focused completely on Delhi. He also enjoys a kind of immunity -- try saying 2002 in front of them -- among his supporters. Maybe it’s too late to ‘expose’ Modi or his action/inaction in Gujarat; perhaps the only way out for the Congress is to counter his charisma with visionary ideas.

7. Anti-middle-class bias. Once upon a time, Prime Minister Singh was the Congress’s icon for the middle class. He has lost sheen. Now, the Congress has nobody to motivate or inspire the rapidly growing middle class.

India’s online population is now third largest in world

India now has 73.9 million online users, making it the world’s third largest online population after China and US, according to a new report by ComScore.

The report states that India’s online population grew to 73.9 million in March 2013 which represents a 31 percent year-on-year increase. The report notes that India has an extended online universe in excess of 145 million and that it has the youngest online population among BRICS countries with majority of users being under 35.

Key findings from the report are:

• Three-quarters of India’s online population is under 35. Women comprise 39 percent of the Indian Internet population, but they also spend less time online than men. However women between 35-44 are heaviest users Internet users across Age/Gender groups.
• The online video audience in India grew at 27 percent with 54 million videos users in the past year. YouTube is still on top of  video sites with more than 55 percent share, followed by Facebook, Yahoo and Dailymotion.
• Facebook continues to be the number one social networking site with a 28 percent increase in traffic and a reach of 86 percent. LinkedIn emerges as number two, while Pinterest and Tumblr are the fastest growing networks.
• Non-PC traffic growth starting to accelerate in 2013 with mobile and tablet shares growing to 14.2 percent.
• The fastest growing web categories in India are blogs which saw 11.6 million new users. The Indian blogging audience grew 48 percent in the past year to 36 million visitors, while 26 percent of category traffic came from mobile phones and tablets.

Source: Firstpost

BCCI posts whopping net income of Rs 350 crore in 2012-13

When MS Dhoni's net income is around Rs. 180 Crore, BCCI's net is income is just double of that Rs. 350 crores.

The Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) posted net income of Rs 350 crore, while its gross revenue stood at Rs 950 crore during the fiscal 2012-13.

The BCCI, considered the world’s richest cricket body, has earned a surplus of Rs 382.36 crore in 2011-12. Informing this on Thursday after the BCCI’s Finance Committee meeting in Delhi, Board Treasurer Ravi Savant told PTI that the net income figure has been arrived at “provided there is no tax (levied on the amount).”

“The Finance Committee passed the accounts and they will be placed before the Board’s Working Committee that should be meeting in the first week of September,” he said. The Working Committee would also finalise the dates of the Board’s AGM, also to be held next month.

Savant said that the net income from the cash-rich Indian Premier League worked out to Rs 237 crore.

“The coming year will see a dip in revenue (from broadcast rights) as we are not hosting many international games apart from the ODI and T20 matches against Australia (in October-November),” Savant said.

India are to host seven ODIs and one T20 game against Australia from October 10 to November 2. Later, they are scheduled to tour South Africa and New Zealand followed by Asia Cup and World T20 Bangladesh.

Source: PTI

Why Modi strikes a chord with the youth and not Rahul?

The recent fight between the supporters of NaMo & Rahul Gandhi in the "Social Media" sites has given a dreat discussion topic to the Media. How NaMo is leading the social media battle? Can he really strike a chord with the youth than Rahul Gandhi, the so called youth leader. 

In the age of marketing, there is perhaps no social category as attractive as the urban 'youth' brand. The MTV generation has spawned channels, products, a lifestyle designed to promote this 'youth' culture. And now, in the battle for power in the next general elections, it is this ubiquitous youth factor which is expected to play a bigger role than ever before.

The 2014 general elections will be the first to have India's post liberalisation generation exercise their franchise. The post-1991 babies have grown up. One estimate suggests the number of first-time voters - between the age of 18 and 23 - will be around a 110 million of the 800 million eligible voters. This is, in a sense, the Virat Kohli generation, not even the Sachin Tendulkar one: their appetite for 20-20 cricket is translated into their life goals: a generation which is aggressive, aspirational, consumerist and impatient for change. This is an India, especially in the metros, which has only used mobiles, never seen a black and white TV, is Internet savvy and never heard of the Soviet Union.

In the normal course, 43-year-old Rahul Gandhi and his youth 'managers' should have been the natural mascots of this new India, and not a 62-year-old Narendra Modi and his Sangh Parivar. Rahul is younger, English-speaking, telegenic and tech-friendly. And yet, as most recent youth surveys suggest, it is Modi who is the preferred choice of young Indians. Where has Modi succeeded where Rahul has failed in attracting younger India?

In 2007, Rahul was appointed Congress general secretary in charge of the Youth Congress and NSUI, its students' wing. The promise was that Rahul would reform youth politics, and, importantly, 'democratise' the youth organisations. Yes, he did succeed in energizing and holding elections to these youth bodies, but he failed in actually breaking down the closed shop of dynastical politics within the Congress. Being a dynast himself, he perhaps lacked the moral authority to completely overhaul a system which has thrived on family ties. Instead of being identified with a new, meritocratic India, Rahul allowed himself to be trapped in the baba log image: a child of privilege for whom politics was a family business.

More importantly, Rahul has failed to throw up a big idea that would make him particularly attractive to teenage India. Spending a night with a Dalit family or travelling in a Mumbai local is not a big idea but a photo op, one that smacks of tokenism. Rahul's attempted discovery of the 'other' India might even have worked if he had stuck to it. But you can't make one speech highlighting the plight of Kalawati and Vidarbha's farm widows and then forget about it. During the Anna agitation and the anti-rape protests when the young took to the streets, he again went missing. You cant be anonymous in Parliament, give no interviews, rarely address press conferences, refuse high profile college fest invites, not have a twitter or Facebook account and then expect to reach out to a highly interactive generation which thrives on constant communication.

This is where Modi has stepped in to fill the vacuum left by the Congress youth icon. In the last five years, while Rahul has stayed mostly closeted behind the forbidding walls of Lutyens Delhi - barring the occasional foray into a UP - Modi has made a conscious and sustained attempt at engaging with young India. Be it a Google Hangout, a Twitter account with regular updates and addressing students, Modi has almost been like a Shah Rukh Khan on a 24 x7 Chennai Express promotional overdrive in seeking young audiences.

Nor is wooing the young simply a matter of who plays the social media game better. The winner of the next elections will not be decided by who has more followers on twitter but by who offers a better dream for the future. Rahul has chosen the India versus Bharat theme, reminding us of an unequal society and the need for a compassionate state. Modi, by contrast, has attempted to sell his "Gujarat as India" high growth model, one which sees the state as a facilitator to private enterprise.

In a pre-1991 era, the Rahul idea of a poverty-conscious society might have struck a chord. The post-1991 kids don't want to feel a sense of guilt at past failures or even present inequities. This generation simply wants to steam ahead into the future, unencumbered by either ideological faultlines or income divides. They are looking for a political leadership which promises quick fix, solutions to age old problems: one which will fix corruption, red-tapism, unemployment, even terrorism and Pakistan by simply a swish of the hand. The rhetoric may not always match reality, but Modi's image as a tough, no-nonsense leader is nonetheless attractive. So what if he carries the badge of authoritarianism and the baggage of failing to control the 2002 riots, he talks our language of growth targets and delivery is the prevailing 'youth' narrative.

Ironically, the last leader who enjoyed such high popularity among the youth was Rahul's father, Rajiv Gandhi. With the computer as his weapon, a fresh-faced Rajiv offered the seductive big idea of technology as an agent of change. Modi is offering his personality as a symbol of change, the macho hero who will shake up an ageing status quoist system. Rahul needs to throw up a counter to the Modi challenge, something which he has failed to do so far. Here's a thought: why doesn't Rahul even now make the rampant commercialisation of education a key campaign plank? Yes, we need bijli sadak pani; we also need high quality shiksha.

Post-script: My 18-year-old son is a first-time voter. I asked him what he thought of Modi's Independence Day speech and whether it was inappropriately timed. "I don't know about the timing, but at least he spoke!" And therein hangs a tale.

Source: ibnlive

Can Crowd Censoring be the Solution?

The practice of protesting and filing case to ban against the movies has become a regular habit of the Tamil Politicians. Can this become the viable solution for their problems?

Tamil nationalist groups are again displaying an intolerant streak. They want Madras Café, a film loosely based on the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, to be banned because it shows the Tamil Eelam struggle in Sri Lanka in a poor light. Though the Madras High Court has rightly declined to stay the release of the film, some groups seeking to ban the film are readying themselves to create a law and order problem as a form of protest. That apprehension of law and order disruptions cannot be grounds for banning a film is settled law and has been upheld repeatedly by the Supreme Court of India. In its judgment in S. Rangarajan v Jagjivan Ram involving the film Ore Oru Gramathile, in 1989, the court was unequivocal that “freedom of expression cannot be suppressed on account of [the] threat of demonstration and processions or threats of violence.” The right to freedom of speech and expression is enshrined in the Constitution, and chauvinist elements, no matter of what hue, should not be allowed to infringe on this right citing some imagined slight to a group or community. The onus is on the State government and its policing arm to act against those attempting to disrupt law and order. Whether the film is good or bad, whether it is fact or fiction, all these have nothing to do with the right to freedom of expression of the film-makers and artistes.

Of late, film-makers and distributors have been organising special screenings for representatives of groups or communities who apprehend that the film could be offensive to their sensibilities. In Tamil Nadu, the government appears to have encouraged such groups by banning the film Dam 999 and seeming sympathetic to those wanting a ban on Vishwaroopam. The Central Board of Film Certification is the only competent body to censor a film, and once cleared by the board, no film should again have to be subjected to “clearance” from groups claiming to have been offended by it. Chauvinist elements are emboldened when a government adds to the pressure on the film-makers, instead of getting tough on those threatening to disturb law and order. Too often, the producers are forced to compromise and agree to cuts rather than risk prolonging the release of the film. When the government does not stand up for freedom of speech and expression, film-makers, distributors and exhibitors think it is safer to buy peace with the chauvinist groups. It would reflect very poorly on the administrative capabilities of the Tamil Nadu government if the film is withheld from exhibition for fear of violence. As for those who wish to protect their fragile sensibilities from being hurt in any manner, how’s this for a really simple remedy? Don’t see the movie.

Source: The Hindu

Can Tata Nano's Repositioning Reap Benefits? - A New Life for Tata Nano: Will it Succeed?

Even after subsequent failures, Tata Nano has added many features into its Nana variant and looking for a increase in sales. Can Tata Nano's repositioning reap benefits? 

Faced with steep fall in sales of Nano, Tata Motors said it will reposition the budget car as 'a smart city car' with added features such as power steering, apart from introducing a CNG version.

"We are now focusing on increasing the features and the perceived value of the Nano with every subsequent model launch," Tata Group Chairman Cyrus P Mistry told shareholders at the 68th annual general meeting.

"We are now focusing on making it a smart city car and targeting the young customers," he added.

Despite discounts and other freebies, Tata Motors has not been able to draw in customers to Nano showrooms and its dedicated Nano plant at Sanand in Gujarat is running much below even half its capacity.

"We are coming out with power steering options (on Nano), improved interiors and exteriors and better fuel efficiency," Mistry said.

According to the latest Siam data, market share of Tata Motors dived to 8.9 per cent in July in the passenger car space, from 11.8 per cent in March, pushing it down to the fourth slot. For commercial vehicles, the share slipped to 52.9 per cent from 56.1 per cent during the same period.

In the April-June quarter, Tata Motors' standalone sales declined 14 per cent from a year earlier, pulling down its annualised manufacturing capacity utilisation to a low 36.2 per cent, from 47.6 per cent in the fiscal ended March 2013, said a Moody's report dated August 19. It also warned of credit rating of the company due to the steeply falling market share and sales volumes.

Mistry also said the company will launch the much-delayed CNG variant of the Nano this year.

Mistry said the road ahead for Tata Motors continues to be challenging, yet full of opportunities, adding: "Tata Motors is committed to improve its customer-centricity, to better understand customer needs and translate them into exciting and appropriate products for our markets.

Tata Motors invested Rs 3,000 crore (Rs 30 billion) capex in the last fiscal and that this fiscal the capex could be more, he said.

Regarding the proposal to have zero production days at Tata Motors Limited, he said, "We explored the necessary block closure dates in TML in respective manufacturing units as best required. We will continue to look at specific dates as may be required by the business environment in the future."

To a question on the current rate of capacity utilization of passenger cars and commercial vehicles, he said the installed capacity stands at 1.6 million vehicles and the production in 2012-13 stood at 7.73 lakh vehicles at a utilisation of 48 per cent.

On the new products in the commercial vehicles space, Mistry said the Prima range is coming out with the upgraded cabins, with better fuel efficiency and technologies.

"Multi axles and hybrid bases and the new range of LCV – Ultra range, we are providing number of value added service to the customers," he said.

To a question on what was the company's strategy on the UV space, Mistry said: "We are doing repositioning of different products, the Aria, the Grande, to meet the customer specific requirement in order to be more competitive.

"We are improving more product reliability, with the lower operating cost and through network upgradation and expansion," he added.

Stating that there is a lot Tata Motors can do on service, Mistry said, "We are monitoring on all the different dimensions and there is scope for improvement in all the dimensions, in terms of responsiveness to the market, responsiveness on the service side.

"It is not a binary situation, it is a path we are on, it is a continuous journey for us to improve," he said.


Source: Rediff